I think that climate change is going to become a much bigger issue in the next few years, and that it will affect the economy, business, politics, and society much more than it has to date. In doing so, it will affect the mission of most nonprofits – and funding prospects for all nonprofits.

Why Al Gore Was Wrong

A few years ago, Al Gore came out with An Inconvenient Truth – a presentation, book, and movie about climate change. He said that we have to cut CO2 emissions to keep climate change within a limit of 2C (3.2F) of warming. If we didn’t, the world would go into “runaway climate change” – fast, out-of-control warming, melting of the polar ice caps, sea level rise, and extreme weather.

But Al Gore was wrong – and not because he was too pessimistic. He was too optimistic. I believe that future research will show that climate change was already runaway when Gore came out with his book, in 2006. And people around the world, starting in the US, have shown that they’re simply not ready to make the changes needed to cut CO2 emissions.

Today, the US has no major climate change legislation in place; no new, major treaties or agreements are even being considered; and CO2 emissions are accelerating upward.

The environment is showing the strain. The last decade was the warmest on record. Record-setting droughts have affected Australia, the American Southwest, Texas in particular, and the Southeast as well. Extreme weather – stronger hurricanes like Katrina, other storms, and flooding – are being recognized as effects of climate change.

What Happens Next

People haven’t really absorbed Al Gore’s message, especially in the US – where some Republican presidential candidates claim that climate change is a lie. President Obama didn’t make it a priority, even when Democrats controlled both the House and Senate.

This is too bad, because some people are starting to realize that Al Gore’s message wasn’t nearly strong enough.

Scientists are starting to project climate change in this century, with emissions not stopping anytime soon, and with the environment reacting. We’ll see much hotter temperatures, melting ice caps, burning forests, advancing deserts, and acidifying oceans.  Current projections from leading institutions – for instance, MIT and the Hadley Center in the UK – are for roughly seven to 10F of warming in this century(!).

Most scientists still believe that rapid action on emissions can cut warming. However, very importantly, those projections don’t include feedback from the environment. The models that scientists use just aren’t up to the job. With those feedbacks included, the chance of avoiding catastrophic warming is very low.

This news has hardly gotten any attention, possibly because it’s just too dire to absorb easily. However, the IPCC – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – is preparing its next report, due in 2014. As this approaches, early drafts will get publicity. And people will begin to realize what’s happening.

What You Need to Do

To begin with, you need to have a few people in your organization who are up on the latest science about climate change. Or, you need to tap into outside experts who can advise you. Such people are hard to find – most of us, even experts, are still stuck in the comforting world of An Inconvenient Truth, not the severe changes that are already beginning to occur.

You also need to begin assessing the effects on your organization. The news about climate change will affect you well before the actual changes in the climate have much impact. That’s the topic of my next posting.

P.S. I’m asking that friends of mine send comments to me by email, if possible; if you’re new to this blog, please comment below!